The Global Financial System Braces For An Iranian Confrontation:

Good afternoon TSIBR readers! Today we follow up with the political side of the 2010 political-economic coin. Well America, December was certainly a doozy! The US lurched apprehensively towards broader conflict in the Middle East while Iran and its Western adversaries took steps to prepare for direct violent confrontation. 2010 will likely bring forth some of the more ferocious episodes this current generation will witness; thus we all should brace ourselves accordingly. Perhaps fortunately, the global financial system has already been braced for us, but I get ahead of myself.

The following essay will cover developing events in the three conflict hotspots most likely to foment violent incidents on the global stage in 2010. We’ll move from the least pressing to the most pressing (from the perspective of real-politics), thus our path will start with Yemen, move onto the Af/Pak region, and close with Iran. Away we go…

YEMEN:

On Yemen, much is being said… One thing that seems to be lost in the shuffle is that on December 17^th 2009 the US, without warning or apparent direct provocation, greatly expanded its drone program in Yemen, with at least two devastating strikes:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/12/18/launched-missile-strikes-al-qaeda-yemen-sources-say/

How many were killed, and precisely who, is still classified as far as TSIBR can tell, but initial reports suggested that the infamous former American citizen and now powerfully persuasive Yemeni radical Imam, Anwar al-Awlaki, was killed or seriously injured in the attack. Awlaki, you all will recall I’m sure, had contact with the Fort Hood shooter. Question: did Obama decide to go after Awlaki without even publicizing the Fort Hood massacre as terrorism?

Obama clearly wants Americans to view terror events more as crime than warfare (thus KSM’s NYC trial). I believe that want, and the conflicting realities born from that want, led Obama to consider the Fort Hood bombing a terror event, but to treat it publicly as a crime. Clandestinely he may have responded as if it were an act of war by directly trying to kill Awlaki, and decimate his growing terror network (al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula – AQAP). The attempt seems to have failed, as indications now suggest Awlaki is not only alive, but immediately activated at least one plot that was already formed within his network and close to going operational. Thus, I think it’s important that Americans realize that this particular failed bombing attempt could be viewed as blowback from Obama’s strange handling of the Fort Hood massacre.

It’s like this – Obama by nature is not a wartime President. America needs one desperately (and Bush was not a good one). Personally I think Obama is slowly becoming an acceptable wartime President, but such a transition for any such man necessarily takes time; time amid crisis. What will not help him get there, and will not help America in a dire hour of crisis should one arrive, is mounting Republican treason. That’s right, treason – the Cheney led rhetoric against Obama is becoming downright treasonous. No one with a conscience or a true concern for America should seek to delegitimize the most legitimated American President in a generation, let alone during a time of deep crisis and mounting conflict. This is sick, and anyone who supports Cheney, now or in the past, Republicans or otherwise, should be disgusted:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1209/31054.html

Terror events coming to American shores was baked into the global cake during the Clinton administration. Bush administration actions guaranteed that America would be dealing with this threat for decades to come. Obama is dealing with it, perhaps not excellently at the moment, but blaming him for lapses he had no control over… is an avenue towards what?

Let’s consider that for a moment. The CIA sat on incredibly key and obviously urgent information here, claiming they were waiting for a picture, when they had access, through his family, to any information on the soon-to-be bomber they required:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/12/30/fingerpointing-begins-aftermath-attempted-terror-attack/

Question: who has better connections to the anti-terror components of the American intelligence apparatus today, Obama or Cheney? It seems to me that Cheney may, wittingly or unwittingly, be attempting to set the stage for a complete and total delegitimation of the entire Obama administration should something very dire come to American shores from abroad. To what end? Time may well answer that question.

But in the present, how dangerous is AQAP? As compared to the Qaeda aligned Taliban groups in Pakistan, TSIBR would say far less of a threat currently. The most dangerous aspect of AQAP, of course, is their proximity to Saudi Arabia, its oil wells, and its many potential fundamentalist militants. Thus Yemen could play a similar destabilizing role to Saudi Arabia as Afghanistan does to Pakistan, and that is certainly AQAP’s main goal. But in the decade since 9/11, there has been little indication that AQAP can be successful in said endeavor. That may be changing, but as of yet there is no real indication that it is changing. TSIBR will cover AQAP deeply if and when the network begins to succeed in its attempts to destabilize Saudi Arabia.

As for more terror coming to America from AQAP, if it does its likely to be on the same small scale as the failed Christmas attempt. TSIBR is of the opinion that something big is far more likely to come from Lashkar or the TTP in Pakistan – for example, the Zazi attempt, formulated in Afghanistan and Pakistan, likely would have been much more spectacular had it gone fully operational. In any case, here are some of the more informative articles I have encountered on AQAP:

Awlaki’s involvement:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/12/29/radical-imam-tied-plots-gone-operational-yemen/

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,581445,00.html

Yemen as terrorist haven:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/yemen-obamas-top-anti-terror-target/story?id=9479807

Background on AQAP:

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2009/12/2009122935812371810.html

Yemen and the US are working together to hide US military involvement in the dismantling of AQAP:

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/12/29/us.yemen.strike.targets/

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,582156,00.html?test=latestnews

THE AF/PAK REGION:

Our second destination today is the ever-pleasant Af/Pak region, an area lovingly known as The Place Where Empires Go To Die. Shall American Hegemony die there? Perhaps. Americans seem to think that the Taliban everywhere is a disorganized mess. This is not so. Last year TSIBR highlighted an article by a British journalist captured by the Taliban. He reported that behind the front lines the Taliban are organized around shadow governors and governments that are actually more effective than the pro-Western governments in Afghanistan. McChrystal then confirmed this in September, and now the fact is basically common knowledge, as this McClatchy article entitled “Time is Running Out” reveals:

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/81358.html

The above article also indicates that there really is no separating the War in Afghanistan from the al Qaeda/Taliban support bases located inside Pakistan. In fact, the Afghan Taliban are becoming quite adept at deploying nitrate fertilizer IEDs; and, unsurprisingly, the fertilizer and components have consistently been traced back to Pakistan. That alone suggests the US will soon be fighting in Pakistan, but the following does more so…

During the last week of December a Jordanian double agent was allowed inside the CIA’s forward operational base in Khost province near the Pakistan border, he detonated himself thereby decimating the CIA base and killing the eight officers inside. Al Qaeda in Afghanistan has claimed responsibility and linked the bombing to the high profile successful drone attacks of last year (this CIA base undoubtedly plays a fundamentally strategic role in drone attacks):

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/01/04/cia-base-bomber-jordanian-doctor-source-says/

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/06/world/06intel.html?hp

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jXJ8mL9bAv_EFJOIAWRVIRtvK6-w

Nevertheless, the US seems to have actionable intelligence that the plot was in some way organized by the Haqqani network, based in North Waziristan inside Pakistan. Haqqani is a key leader of the Afghan Taliban, and has been a powerful tribal leader in Af/Pak throughout the region’s post 1979 turmoil; he undoubtedly now resides in Pakistan’s North Waziristan:

http://in.reuters.com/article/southAsiaNews/idINIndia-45226320100107?feedType=RSS&feedName=southAsiaNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FINsouthAsiaNews+%28News+%2F+IN+%2F+South+Asia+News%29

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,582122,00.html?test=latestnews

As the two above articles discuss, America has long pressured Pakistan to do something about the Haqqani network in North Waziristan. Recall that last year’s Pakistani South Waziristan offensive faltered at the borders of North Waziristan, even after it had become abundantly clear that the Mehsud led TTP, formerly in South Waziristan, was setting up new camps in North Waziristan.

Clearly North Waziristan will now be taking center stage in the 2010 Pakistani front, and if Pakistan can’t, or won’t, do something about Haqqani, then US defense leaders may increasingly come to realize that America must take the fight into Pakistan. Meanwhile drone attacks in North Waziristan have been rising continuously since the CIA bombing, thus further complicating a complex and dangerous situation:

http://www.nwotruth.com/drone-strikes-reported-in-pakistan/

Of course, it’s also possible that a 2010 domestic terror event, traced back to Pakistan, will drive US forces across the Pakistani border. Interestingly, the connections between American born jihadists and the Pakistani Kashmiri freedom-fighting outfit, Lashkar-e-Taibia (responsible for the Mumbai attack), appear to have become surprisingly deep of late. In fact, an American, David Headley, apparently helped case Mumbai targets for Lashkar, and he may have been a US double-agent who at one time worked for the DEA. Never has TSIBR encountered a backpage story with such intrigue and potential for the revelation of shocking interconnections within the shadowy global intelligence world. TSIBR will attempt to immediately post any new information that breaks on this strange Headley story:

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20091216_tactical_implications_headley_case

And here is an article on five Pakistani-Americans that recently traveled to Pakistan, apparently seeking either al Qaeda or Lashkar to train them for jihad.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/80394.html

Add these stories in with the Zazi case and I think it becomes obvious that Americans, and even American authorities, do not have a clear understanding of the linkages between Pakistani terror groups and those seeking to bring terror to American shores. TSIBR continues to believe that pro-al Qaeda Pakistani terror groups remain the greatest terror-event threat to domestic America.

Anyone who thinks Pakistan is likely to limit that threat will likely find themselves mistaken. Listen folks, there are few more anti-American nations on the planet than Pakistan. Here is an NPR article regarding how much Pakistan hates America:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=121748916

Here are a couple of NYT articles that clearly imply Pakistan hates America:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/17/world/asia/17visa.html?_r=1

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2010/01/07/world/AP-AS-Pakistan.html?_r=1

And here is the best article on Pakistani hate, from Slate:

http://www.slate.com/id/2239339/

If there is any singular reason why Pakistan contains so much hate for the US, it’s that many Pakistanis believe America will ultimately support India against Pakistan in their ever-looming conflict over Kashmir. Many Pakistanis also believe that America’s plan is to leave Afghanistan with Indian forces pretty much in command, thereby destabilizing Pakistan vis-à-vis India greatly. Moreover, Afghanistan is strategically important to India as most of its energy needs either come from or must flow through Afghanistan. Thus many Pakistanis truly believe that the US and India are in cahoots to take over Afghanistan in order to destabilize Pakistan in preparation for a Kashmiri offensive and the ultimate dissolution of Pakistan. The following two articles discuss such issues. As you read them, keep in mind the TSIBR view that al Qaeda’s two main goals in Pakistan are to 1) Have the US incontrovertibly cross the Af/Pak border with guns a-blazing; and/or 2) Have India cross over into disputed Kashmir with guns a-blazing. Either or both of these things would send calls for jihad reverberating throughout the media and Islamic world; and either or both could easily be fomented by terror events in America and/or India:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/15/world/asia/15haqqani.html?_r=1

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=113781764

As if that’s not bad enough, Pakistan’s civilian government remains on the verge of collapse, under attack by Army forces that are not particularly friendly to American interests:

http://www.sphere.com/world/article/end-to-pakistan-amnesty-law-poses-new-problems-for-us/19289477

IRAN:

Believe it or not TSIBR readers, Pakistan is not the most pressing hotspot with the potential for unleashing explosive violence in 2010. That mantle has clearly passed to Iran (truthfully it never really left Iran). In fact, TSIBR readers, anytime you look at, or think about, a map of the Middle East, just go ahead and cover Iran with a sign reading: Bomb Or Bust in 2010. That’s where we are at folks. In mid December a story broke indicating that Iran is presently working on a trigger component for a nuclear bomb:

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=9331457

There must have been some truth there, because said news kicked Ahmadinejad into extreme Fuck You mode (pardon my French):

http://abcnews.go.com/WN/diane-sawyers-exclusive-interview-mahmoud-ahmadinejad/story?id=9383487&page=1

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,580845,00.html?test=latestnews

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126254286128213977.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLTopStories

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9CVO0NO0&show_article=1

Around the same time (the morning of December 17^th) the Revolutionary Guard took the provocative move of occupying a disputed Iraqi oil well near the Iranian border:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,580560,00.html?loomia_ow=t0:s0:a16:g2:r3:c0.094572:b29436344:z10

The move confounded analysts worldwide, and most made little of it, but TSIBR noticed something awfully strange. On the morning that Iran occupied the well, there was a massive Twitter hack attack. Anyone who went to Twitter was redirected to an image hailing ‘The Iranian Cyber Army”:

http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/12/17/twitter-reportedly-hacked-by-iranian-cyber-army/

As far as TSIBR is concerned, on December 17^th Iran declared war on its global detractors. It was a shot across the bough, and a highly meaningful one at that. The powers that be in Iran will be opting for war with the West, of this TSIBR is near certain. There is no nation on the face of the Earth today that requires the ‘fleshing out of foreign demons’ like the state of Iran. Besieged from the inside and out, the powerful and wealthy Iranian Revolutionary Guard are in a pitched fight for their survival; they’re doubling down on fascist oppression, and have clearly become willing to sacrifice their own populace in a drive to torpedo the entire American led global system, should their survival ultimately become in doubt:

http://abcnews.go.com/International/iran-protests-grow-regime-nervous/story?id=9479733

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1261364515941

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article6971053.ece

Let me say this absolutely plainly: the world cannot let the Revolutionary Guard obtain a nuclear weapon. There really is very little difference between the Revolutionary Guard and Hitler’s Nazis, and that’s all there is to it. Buck up Americans, we’re going to war with Iran, and for once it’s the good fight. The reform movement in Iran appears to be quite capable, they’ll likely have a democracy in place that can develop alongside the West rather quickly once the Guards have been removed. And if Obama is smart, for that reason alone, he won’t leave this to Israel; however, it seems unlikely Israel will wait past 2010:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,581277,00.html

Now let’s talk a bit more about time horizons on this ticking time-bomb. In the middle of ’09 Obama set a six-month deadline for negotiations. That deadline has now expired with no progress having been made, precisely as TSIBR expected. TSIBR then tacked on another 2-3 months for the sanctions push to fail, yielding a prediction for Iranian-US direct conflict to initiate sometime in March 2010:

http://thesystemisblinkingred.blogspot.com/2009/07/march-to-march-2010.html

Well now that we are approaching March, please realize that there is nothing special about March in particular (other than its double-meaning makes for great titles); TSIBR has no crystal ball. Let’s more realistically predict the initiation of Iranian violent confrontation as occurring sometime within a six-month window starting March 1^st; we’ll see how that prediction holds up. Btw, China is already blocking sanctions:

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6045E720100105

Ultimately, not only will sanctions not work, but the US is going to need boots on the ground in Iran. Believe it or not, Ahmadinejad is some sort of obsessed expert on the construction of massively fortified deep-underground tunnels:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/06/world/middleeast/06sanctions.html?hp

With troops on the ground in Iraq and Afghanistan, it’s probably difficult, if not impossible, for Americans to imagine a ground-war with Iran right now. Do me a favor though, remove emotion and let’s look at this clinically: the Revolutionary Guard are clearly in ‘bomb or bust mode’, and allowing what amounts to a modern day fascist outfit acquire a nuclear bomb is simply not an option. Green-lighting an Israeli strike is also not an option, because an Israeli strike would be like a gift from god to the Revolutionary Guard. So the US has no choice but to strike. Iran will retaliate in the Straits of Hormuz, Israel, Iraq, and possibly America itself. From there all bets are off and war is on; the rapidity with which humanity adapts to this situation will surely astound all observers.

Ah, humanity, what a strange, beautiful, and yet complexly disturbing manifestation of life. Prone to open-ended development by lurch and crisis, and yet somehow seemingly on a path of greater design… Journey with me then for a moment: in order to prosecute WWII, America was forced to socialize its entire economic system; America was a planned economy through and through. No government can have its economy collapse when it is in a pitched fight for its way of life, and American authorities did what needed to be done. But today the economy is entirely globalized and deeply interconnected. America socializing its economy alone would be rather meaningless to its overall prospects for survival. The point I am getting at is this: in today’s world the only way to prevent catastrophic global economic collapse, should two leading global nations come to direct blows, would be to semi-socialize the global financial system in its entirety. Otherwise uncertainty and panic would breed collapse in the chaotic and nearly ungovernable realm of global finance.

Lo and behold TSIBR readers, as we approach war with Iran, the global financial system has already been effectively socialized. And although official outbreak of hostilities will likely cause traders to jump for Treasuries, dollars, oil, and gold; the system may not entirely seize, as it surely would have had it not already been braced for crisis. I bring this up not so much to say now is a good time to confront Iran (although it is, in fact, its high time); I bring up this digression to suggest that the political chaos that preceded the financial crisis, the financial crisis itself, and the impending war with Iran are all symptoms of the same disease – our global governance and societal institutions have not yet assumed a shape in accordance with the globe’s powerful new form of development: informationalism.

Informationalization and resultant globalization have come up against Middle Eastern barriers to further global integration and development. Easy money was necessary for informationalism to take hold, but it eventually pushed oil near $150. The financial crisis was triggered by the Fed’s attempt to reign in oil prices. From that moment, America, the leading informational nation, has come into ever more direct confrontation with Iran, the leading anti-informational nation. That’s why Iran attacked Twitter during the Revolutionary Guards’ trial breach of the Iraqi border. See how these events are connected at the depths where long-wave historical rhythms dwell?

All of human capitalist history incontrovertibly indicates that informationalization will not stop, and the Middle East will ultimately get on board. America must be willing to assist that transition, by any means necessary (especially when we’re threatened), or suffer not only the loss of future informational development, but perhaps also the loss of human civilization itself. Confronting Iran and removing the fascist Revolutionary Guards is the most direct and clear path towards the deepened internationalism necessary to tackling mounting global problems and securing a prosperous future for young Americans. It is how America can get its mojo back. (McCain’s bastardized version of Barbara-Ann hums away... hauntingly... mockingly... in the background…)

Joshua Kane